Perspectives Across the Border: US-Mexico Relations and the Impact of the 2024 Presidential Election

On November 5th, the people of the United States will determine their nation’s next leader, either current Vice President Kamala Harris or 45th President Donald Trump. As a student studying abroad this semester in Mexico, taking part in a program focusing particularly on issues of globalization, migration, and social change, I couldn’t help but wonder how America’s southern neighbor could be impacted by the next four years, and I was eager to hear from Mexican perspectives on the upcoming presidential election.

One of the most prominent issues in the 2024 election discourse, as well as several previous United States elections, is immigration. Former President Donald Trump became infamous for his strict views on limiting immigration, particularly from Mexico and other Latin American countries. A central promise of his 2016 presidential campaign was building a wall along the US-Mexico border, and he has consistently used prejudiced, inflammatory rhetoric in describing Mexican immigrants. In a 2018 speech, he notoriously said, “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best… They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.” That same year, his administration implemented a “Zero-Tolerance” deterrence policy that further enabled the separation of thousands of migrant families, many of whom still have not been reunited. In addition to his dangerous vitriol and controversial policy, his scapegoating of undocumented immigrants for economic issues, such as overwhelming demand for social services and high housing costs, has continued over the years– this has only been echoed by his running mate JD Vance, most recently during the Vice Presidential Debate on October 1st.

Vice President Kamala Harris has historically taken a relatively left-leaning stance on migration issues. She has supported paths to citizenship for undocumented people, opposed the practice of family separation, and has spoken proudly about being a child of immigrants from India and Jamaica, repeatedly referencing immigrants’ indisputable contributions to American history and development. Harris’s discussion of migration surely hasn’t been as abrasive as that of Trump’s, and she has condemned his words against immigrants. That being said, she has emphasized the need for stricter border policies and has boasted about her history as a California prosecutor and Attorney General targeting “transnational gangs, drug cartels, and human traffickers.” Illegal drug trafficking into the US and its impact on the nation, especially the ongoing fentanyl crisis, has also become a huge election theme. She has promised to bring back the bipartisan border bill Biden failed to pass and to be an aggressive enforcer of the law– deportation numbers under the Biden-Harris Administration are also on pace to match those of Trump’s.

Carlos Romero, a Mexican native who works in digital security and international business, feels Harris’ proposed policy is unclear because of her late start in the presidential race, as well as intense Republican pressure and criticism of the current administration being too “lax” on the border issue. “I think from what I’ve seen… in all the rallies [the press] publishes every day, she’s trying to fit whatever the people want to hear now, and she will solve it later,” he said.

Cesar, a resident of the village of Amatlán de Quetzalcoatl in Morelos, Mexico, has experienced the dangerous trek across the border firsthand. He came to the United States undocumented five separate times, looking for opportunities to support his family, working in restaurant kitchens for a few dollars an hour while also trying to learn English, navigating the mistreatment of employers, and avoiding immigration patrol forces. In his view, regardless of a Democratic or Republican president, the US will maintain its global power, and migrants from Mexico and other Latin American countries, such as Guatemalans and Salvadorans, will continue to struggle. “We always wonder, being such a powerful country with so many educated people, it’s impossible to believe you don’t have a better candidate than Donald Trump,” he admitted. “I feel the dominant groups will always choose who it’ll be… I don’t think anything will change for us. I don’t think they’re very committed to making integral plans of development, full plans to help people… With either candidate, I don’t think things will improve for us.”

Another huge election topic has been the state of the economy, particularly in regard to free and international trade. Claudio Paul Barragán, one of the co-directors of Universal Language and Social Communication Center, a Spanish school in Cuernavaca, Mexico, spoke about what is at stake for the country: “With Trump, the economy will be more restrictive. He wants to enact tariffs, and with the Democrats, with Biden, and with Kamala, we hope that the [trade] situation will be a little more open… therefore, my family and I hope that Kamala will win.” Ramiro Cúellar Hernández, Universal’s second co-director, also touched on the interpersonal economic ties between the two nations: “Historically, culturally, we are very linked to the United States... many families, especially in rural areas, depend on the remittances sent by the immigrants who are there. So, in some way, Mexico is affected in that sense.”

In 2023, Mexico was the United States’ largest goods trading partner, even surpassing China, and is vital to automobile production, agricultural produce, and several other US industries. Trump is once again adopting an “America First” strategy, wanting to impose high tariffs to encourage domestic purchases and increase American jobs. Trump has proposed a 20% tariff on imported goods from other countries (except China, for which he suggested a 60% tariff), and a 100% tariff on every car imported from Mexico. Vice President Harris strongly opposes these ideas and called his proposal a “sales tax on the American people” in an MSNBC interview. According to data by the Wilson Center, US investment has grown about sixfold since the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and 6 million US jobs depend on trade with Mexico. Such drastically increased tariffs would violate the USMCA (US, Mexico, Canada) Trade Agreement as it currently stands, endangering the mutually beneficial relationship between the US and Mexico.

Despite these economic effects, the directors of Universal do not expect any other significant changes in Mexico, and haven’t observed many over the years as US presidential power has transitioned. “The truth is that the foreign policy of the United States, with the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, history and the global context tell us that there is not much difference,” Cuellar Hernández shared. “When we review the history of American interventions... Mexico was historically one of the victims of the expansionist policies of the US. So the truth is that in that sense, we don't have much hope for changes.” That being said, Cuellar Hernández acknowledged the programs that the Democratic Party has enacted to make slight progress in supporting the Mexican population, even when not 100% fulfilled, such as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), a program that has protected undocumented immigrants who came to the US as children from deportation.

Carlos Romero also emphasized the intersection of Mexican immigration and trade issues, specifically involving Trump’s previous strategy. He has a track record of leveraging the immigration crisis against Mexico- for example, in 2019, Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Mexico if the nation did not ramp up immigration enforcement to prevent illegal border crossing. As a result of this threat, Mexico reached an agreement with the US, promising measures including but not limited to deploying its National Guard, increasing raids, and adding checkpoints on highways. If Trump were to be elected and continue using tactics like this towards his political aims, Mexican migrants would continue to suffer the consequences.

Another aspect of Mexican life and society worth considering is the rights and well-being of women. Dr. Lilia Vanegas, a professor at the National Institute of Anthropology and History in Mexico City specializing in women’s history and borderland issues, hopes that the election of Kamala Harris could bring a greater level of sensitivity and care to these topics. She placed particular emphasis on the experiences of Mexican migrant mothers, an especially vulnerable group, enduring horrible conditions in migrant shelters and sometimes being separated from their children. “When they return to Mexico after being deported, men named ‘depredadores’ receive them, men who know that they’re arriving in a fragile condition,” she said. “They offer a phone so they can contact their family. They offer a bed for the night, a clean bed, a warm bed, some food. And many times they say yes because of their fragility, and [the women are victims of] sex trafficking, prostitution, they disappear… there are many problems associated with that.”

She also spoke about the historic inauguration of Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, Mexico’s first-ever female president, on October 1st. Dr. Vanegas hopes that if Harris is elected, Sheinbaum and Harris together will pay special attention to issues facing women and mothers. Like many other nations, Mexico has historically struggled with gender inequality and the oppression of women, the result of sexist attitudes and behaviors referred to as “machismo,” with high rates of femicide being its most violent manifestation. That being said, Sheinbaum is the successor of the previous Mexican president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and her campaign was one that emphasized continuity– many Mexicans do not expect much to change under her leadership. Karina Vargas Rodriguez, a Nahua Indigenous women’s rights activist, echoed the hope for Harris’ election as the Democratic nominee, but her simultaneous concern over protecting migrants and indigenous peoples, issues that are far from resolved in the United States. “Being a woman, or having the body of a woman, doesn’t necessarily imply gender or vision of gender,” she concluded, expressing some of the disregard for identity politics that has arisen in debates about Kamala Harris. While many in both the US and Mexico have eagerly celebrated the idea of Harris making history as the first Black female president, others have been much more critical and hesitant in their praise, still having reservations about her policy. Regardless, Dr. Vanegas and many others expect that there can be a much more mutually respectful and beneficial relationship between Sheinbaum and Harris versus one between Sheinbaum and Trump.

In an ever-evolving world and a constantly changing political landscape, one can only hope that the next American presidential administration will create opportunities for progress in US-Mexico relations. Only time will tell what the next four years hold for both countries.